Jul 10, 2013
05:46 PM
Connecticut Politics

Early Polls Don't Always Predict the Future, Past Connecticut Elections Show

Early Polls Don't Always Predict the Future, Past Connecticut Elections Show

Jennifer Swift

The Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

Polling data released Wednesday may hint toward a tight race and rematch of the gubernatorial race of 2010, but polls of years past show the horse race often doesn’t turn out as originally planned, and name recognition starting out isn’t everlasting.
The last time an incumbent governor in CT was polled this early on the race looked like it might be Republican Gov. Jodi Rell versus then Attorney General, now Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn. In the Quinnipiac University poll of April 2005, Rell with an 80 percent approval rating was leading Blumenthal by only 3 percentage points should the two go head to head—the closest theoretical candidate match up at the time.
But Blumenthal wasn’t the party’s candidate, and then Stamford of Mayor, and current Gov. Dannel P. Malloy would lose the democratic party’s nod to New Haven Mayor John DeStefano, and by the end Rell beat him by a huge margin.
Wednesday, the Quinnipiac Poll showed Malloy behind the man he beat by a narrow margin in 2010.
Former Republican gubernatorial candidate Tom Foley leads a potential election between the two with 3 points.
While Foley leads the pack of prospective Republican candidates in a theoretical primary, those numbers too also shift.
In that same gubernatorial election, the race for the Republican Party nomination first seemed close, according to the Quinnipiac Poll. Foley took in 17 percent against Lt. Gov. Mike Fedele. Foley would continue that lead against Fedele to take the nomination. But on the democrat’s side, poll numbers started out with then Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz taking the lead, but would lose out as the race heated up, with former Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate Ned Lamont, and Malloy, who went on to win the primary and election.
Bysiewicz and Lamont both had the name recognition starting out, the poll’s director pointed out at the time, but eventually that faded away. Foley too has that same name recognition from going up against Malloy last time, so it remains to be seen how this will unfold.
Early Polls Don't Always Predict the Future, Past Connecticut Elections Show

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